2025 Stanley Cup Preview

For the second year in a row, the Edmonton and Oilers and Florida Panthers will battle it out for the NHL’s most glorious honor:

The Stanley Cup.

The Cats won in 7 games last season in a series for the ages. Florida led three games to none, but Connor McDavid led a fierce comeback that came just short. This time around, Edmonton will be looking for revenge, and McDavid will aim to solidify himself amongst the sports’ all time greats with the treasured hardware.

Storylines

This Stanley Cup will feature some interesting storylines. As follows:

• Florida will look to join the Tampa Bay Lightning as repeat champions, as they last did it in 2020 and 2021.
• Canada is still awaiting their first Stanley Cup since 1993, a stretch that has now exceeded 30 years.
• The Oilers will be without one of their top forwards in Zach Hyman for the entire series. Hyman sustained a shoulder injury in Game 4 against the Stars. Who will step in to fill the void?
• Stuart Skinner has been on an incredible run the last two rounds, but can he sustain the play?
• Florida has been getting excellent production from their third line all playoffs; can that keep up?
• The Oilers will have home ice this year, but does that even matter? Both teams won all three rounds without having home ice for a single one; an incredible feat.
• Both teams have had 19 different goal scorers in these playoffs, tied for the third most in a single postseason since 2000, a testament to both teams incredible depth.

How They Got Here

Oilers

The Oilers run to the Final to this point has been sensational. It all started in Round 1 vs the LA Kings, in which they lost the first two games in ugly fashion. They came back from a 4 goal deficit in that first game only to squander the game winning goal with less than a minute left. However, they would make huge adjustments, starting with making a goaltending change. Calvin Pickard was solid in his workload, and Edmonton would go on to win four straight and eliminate the Kings for the fourth straight year.

Round Two against the Golden Knights was also a display of magnificence. They took the first two games on the road, lost game three, and then rebounded greatly to win in five games. Pickard was injured early in the series and then Stuart Skinner stepped up big time, including having back to back shutouts. Fourth line/depth forward Kasperi Kapanen scored the overtime winner in the clinching game. Unlikely heroes have been the story for the Oilers.

The most recent series against the Stars was probably their most impressive. After being up 3-1 heading in the third period in Game 1, they quicky saw their lead vanish and Dallas took game one. By the disappointing looks of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s faces (pictured below), you just knew that Edmonton would take the first loss to heart.

And they did. They won four games in a row, showing the Stars who the real bosses of the West were. They quieted down a strong Dallas lineup that was seen by many as one of the best in all of the NHL.

In all three series, it wasn’t just the Oilers big boys who showed up. They have gotten contributions from everywhere.

Panthers

In a similar way to the Oilers, Florida is on quite the run. It all started in Round 1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning, whom many saw as the favorite. They made quick work of them, winning in five games, including winning all three on the road. Tampa Bay had arguably the best goaltender in the playoffs, in Andrei Vasilevskiy, and one of the leagues top five forwards in Nikita Kucherov. The Cats made both of them look below average.

Round Two against the Toronto Maple Leafs was one for the ages. Florida saw themselves down two games to none, as they dropped the first two games in Toronto. However, they took care of home ice, winning games 3 and 4, before taking control of the series, stomping the Leafs 6-1 in Game 5. Toronto would win Game 6, but the Game 7 demons struck the Leafs core four yet again. The Panthers won Game 7, also by a score of 6-1. Nothing seems to faze them…

The Eastern Conference Finals against the Carolina Hurricanes was a series that the Cats dominated. They outscored Carolina by a combined score of 10-2 during the first two games (on the road) before having a 5 goal third period in Game 3. That game was tied at 1 headed to the final frame, and the Panthers showed why they are the defending champions. The Canes won Game 4, their first Conference Finals win in ages, snapping an 0-15 skid, but that didn’t matter. Florida found themselves down 2-0 after the first period, but they scored three unanswered in the second and shut it down in the third.

The common theme for both teams: Depth scoring and defense. This time of year, whoever gets more contributions from the unlikely players tend to win more often. And both teams have played shut down hockey. Once they get a lead, safe to say they will probably win.

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff: The stats!

Below will be the stats from these playoffs

Goals for per game: EDM 4.06 FLA 3.88

Goals against per game: EDM 2.81 FLA 2.29

Power Play: EDM 30.0% FLA 23.2

Penalty Kill: EDM 66.0% FLA 87.9%

Key players to watch:

Connor McDavid: 6 goals, 20 assists, 26 points

Leon Draisaitl: 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points

Aleksander Barkov: 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points

Sam Bennett: 10 goals, 6 assists, 16 points

Carter Verhaeghe: 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points

Evan Bouchard: 6 goals, 11 assists 17 points

Matthew Tkachuk: 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points

Goaltending matchup: Stuart Skinner (6-4, .904 SV%, 2.53 GAA, 3 shutouts) vs Sergei Bobrovsky (12-5, .912 SV%, 2.11 GAA, 3 shutouts)

I have to give credit to both teams bottom six guys. It would be wrong to not give them praise.

On the Edmonton side. Evander Kane has 11 points, and Corey Perry has 10, including 7 goals. He has played a bigger role since Zach Hyman sustained his injury, but what he is doing at the age of 40 is unreal. Evander Kane was injured for the entire season, and truthfully, he was a detriment to the team last year. But in these playoffs, he has been excellent.

Shoutout to trade deadline acquisition Jake Walman, who is a +12, and Brett Kulak, who is a +11, they may not get on the score sheet, but they have been phenomenal defensively.

For Florida, what is there not to say about that third line, consisting of Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell, and Brad Marchand? Lundell is a +12, and Luostarinen and Marchand are both a +11. Marchand was acquired at the deadline and has fit like a glove. His playstyle mirrors exactly what Florida tries to do. Eetu has 13 points, Marchand has 14, and Lundell has 14. Getting that type of production from your bottom six is what winning teams do.

Speaking of trade acquisition, Seth Jones is a +9 and has provided 7 points in about 25 minutes of ice time per game. He has been a huge boost on that blueline.

But what team has the edge in certain categories, and ultimately, who do I think will win this series? Let’s find out…

Forwards

Both of these teams have highly skilled forwards. Starting on the Oilers side, they have arguably the two best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Stopping them is no small task. McDavid is already an all time great, and this playoff run is only solidifying it. He became just the second player EVER with four straight playoff runs of at least 20 points. This includes last season when he won the Conn Smythe in a losing effort, which is something that very few can say. Besides the two headed monster, others have stepped up big time. Corey Perry is turning back the clock at age 40, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is having himself quite the run, and Evander Kane has been very good. Depth has been a question in years past for the Oilers, but this year it seems as though those questions have been nullified.

As for Florida, they may not have them best player, or top two for that matter, but Aleksander Barkov is making it a close argument. His ability on both sides of the ice is remarkable. He already has a few Selke Trophies to his name and more to come. He is gifted offensively and defensively. However, he will have a tall task in shutting down the games greatest player. But it won’t be a solo effort. Sam Reinhart was also nominated for the Selke Trophy and he can provide goal scoring. he had over 50 goals just last season. And who can forget about Matthew Tkachuk? His game meshes perfectly with the playoffs. He, Sam Bennett, and Brad Marchand play a hard nosed, get in your face type of style. This throws of many teams off and you can tell when they get in the team’s heads. Can’t forget about Eetu Luostarinen and Anton Lundell either, they are magnificent defensively and can provide scoring when needed.

Verdict: There is no denying that Edmonton has the two best players in this series, but as for an overall unit, it is hard not to go with the Panthers forward core. The loss of Zach Hyman can be an underrated aspect of this series. Edmonton looked fine in the two games without him, but Florida seems like the team to make them pay.

Defensemen

Evan Bouchard is an underappreciated player in the NHL. He gets a lot of slack for his play on the blue line, but if you watch the games, he is steady in his own zone. Yes, he may turn the puck over, but he is a playmaker and that will happen. Just last season he had one of the best runs by a defenseman in NHL history. His defense partner, Mattias Ekholm is back from injury. When healthy, he is one of the best shutdown guys in the league. Jake Walman might be the most underrated player in the entire series. he is a +12 in these playoffs. He was acquired from the Sharks this past deadline. Brett Kulak is a +11, and Darnell Nurse and John Klingberg have provided steady play when needed.

Florida, like the Oilers, have similar defensemen. Gustav Forsling is up there for best defensive defensemen in the league. Watching him in the right place all the time is amazing. Aaron Ekblad, the pending UFA, has been a skilled veteran for years who plays solid on both ends. Seth Jones, acquired from Chicago in March, is thriving on his new team. Niko Mikkola and Nate Schmidt have been great during this run. Just last round, Mikkola had a two goal game against the Hurricanes, and Seth Jones scored a big goal in the Cats Game 7 win in Toronto. Back in Round 1 vs Tampa Bay, Schmidt scored a couple of times.

Verdict: I think this is as even as it gets. The Oilers are proving all of the doubters wrong with their defensive play, and Florida is capable of shutting it down on any given night. Both teams have defensemen who can score the puck as well, something very valuable this time of year.

Goaltending

This goaltending matchup is not as one sided as many think. Since Round 1, where Stuart Skinner was pulled twice and had a save percentage of not even .820%, he has been phenomenal. And that might even be a shortage of words. He has a save percentage of almost .950% and a goals against average of under 2. This includes three shutouts, two of them being back to back against the Golden Knights. There were question marks about Skinner’s future with the team, but the last few rounds suggest that he isn’t going anywhere.

Sergei Bobrovsky has also been great. The 37 year old is on quite the run himself. After going down 0-2 to the Leafs, he dialed in. He allowed 9 goals in the first two games, and then only allowed 9 the rest of the way in the five games that followed. And against the Hurricanes, he was superb. Bobrovsky, a two time Vezina Trophy Winner, added a Stanley Cup to his impressive resume last year. The future Hall of Famer became the first Russian-born goaltender to reach 400 wins.

Verdict: Recency bias shows that Skinner has been slightly better the last Round or so, but overall, it is hard to go against the experienced Bobrovsky. However, this was definitely closer than you would think.

Special Teams

Both teams have good power plays, but the Oilers is elite. They are clicking at at 30 percent, while Florida is at 23.2 percent. When the Oilers power play is clicking, they are near unstoppable. The loss of Hyman may hurt, but in the final two games against Dallas Corey Perry scored a power play goal in each. As long as 97 is on the ice, they have a chance to score. The Panthers power play is also solid, but they don’t get recognized like Edmonton’s. Reinhart and Verhaghe can put the puck in the net at any time.

As for the penalty kill, different story. Florida is at 87.9 percent, an incredible rate. But Edmonton is killing just 66 percent of their penalties. In Round 1 against the Kings, they only killed 5 of the first 12, and then in Game 1 against the Stars, they allowed 3 in the first 10 minutes of the third period.

If you add up the two numbers, anyone would tell you that a combined number of over 100 means you have great special teams. Edmonton would be at 96, and the Cats would be at about 111. Therefore, I would say that based on the large penalty kill advantage, I give the slight special teams advantage to the Panthers. But the Oilers being close to 100 with that poor of a penalty kill speaks volumes of how electric that power play is.

Final Verdict/Prediction

I see this series playing out two different ways. I can see the Panthers winning one, or both on the road and take full control of the series, just like how they did with Tampa Bay and Carolina. But I don’t think McDavid and Draisaitl will let that happen. If it is 3-2 Panthers going into Sunrise for Game 6, I think they probably close it out. But I don’t think that will be the case. Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby both lost their first Stanley Cup and won the second time they got there. I don’t see McDavid losing twice in a row to the same team. He will cement his legacy as one of the 5 best players to ever play the game.

Oilers in 7.